By Angela Wade, Realtor & Austin musician with Peak Realty Group

If you’re feeling the tempo shift in Austin, on stage and in the housing market, you’re not alone. Fall brings festival season, cooler nights, and a market that’s settling into a more balanced groove. Here’s what I’m watching as both a musician and a Realtor who loves helping families find the right stage for the next chapter.

The beat on mortgage rates

This week’s big headline: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate notched a 2025 low, with Bank of America saying a path to 5% exists—but only under specific conditions (think Fed policy shifts and renewed demand for mortgage-backed securities, or in other words, a very rough economy). Translation: rates are easing, but a slide to 5% is highly unlikely. Still, the recent drift lower is real buyer relief. Fast Company

What the latest Austin numbers say

August data from Unlock MLS signals a market moving toward balance—not the frenzy of old, but not a standstill either:

• Pending sales in the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos MSA rose 8.2% year over year (fourth straight month of gains).

• Median price held essentially steady around $444,490 (up ~1.3% YoY).

• Active listings hovered near 14,220, and months of inventory sat close to the six-month “balanced market” mark. Unlock MLS+1

Inside the city limits, demand looked even punchier in August, with pending sales up ~16% and the median price around $590,000—evidence that well-priced homes in Austin proper are still drawing a crowd. Statesman

Want to dig into the raw charts and monthly reports yourself? Unlock MLS publishes those regularly. Unlock MLS

Why this matters for you

Buyers:
Lower rates (even modestly lower) + more inventory = a friendlier mix. You’re gaining negotiating power on repairs, concessions, and timing—especially on listings that have been sitting. If rates continue to drift down this fall, locking something in before spring’s usual rush could be your encore. Fast Company+1

Sellers:
Pricing is the headliner—get it right, and you’ll still draw a strong audience. With inventory near balanced, the market rewards homes that are show-ready and properly tuned to neighborhood comps. Strategic price placement and presentation are outperforming wishful pricing. Unlock MLS

It’s festival season—yes, that actually impacts real estate

Austin’s calendar is stacked right now—Fantastic Fest, Pumpkin Nights, HAAM Day, and of course the energy building around ACL and the rest of the fall lineup. More weekend events mean more out-of-town visitors booking showings around their travel—and more locals timing listings and open houses to avoid traffic spikes (or to ride the wave). 

Pro tip from a musician: schedule matters! We routinely advise clients on when to list, host opens, or write offers around major event weekends. That bit of choreography can be the difference between a quiet room and a sold-out show. KUT

My read on the next few bars

• Rates: Easing bias into Q4 is supportive, but a true dive toward 5% likely needs heavier macro help, and would likely mean difficulties in the economy at large, so while the prospect of significantly lower rates, we should be careful what we wish for. Plan for “six-ish” rather than betting the farm on fives. Fast Company

• Prices: Stable to gently firmer in the core; more mixed in the suburbs as inventory normalizes.

• Strategy: Data-driven pricing for sellers; patient, pre-approved, and opportunistic for buyers.

Let’s make your move sing

I grew up around construction, moved to Austin in 2006 to chase music, and spent 15+ years sharpening my sales chops. Helping you navigate timing, pricing, and the right neighborhood feels a lot like arranging a great setlist—every transition matters. If you’re thinking about buying or selling this fall, I’d love to chart a plan that hits your goals and your budget. peakatx.com

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Sources: Fast Company on rate path and Bank of America outlook; Unlock MLS August 2025 Central Texas Housing Report; reporting on Austin’s August trends and inventory levels; KUT’s guide to Austin’s fall festival lineup.